Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272026 261007 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50    163.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.2  26.2  26.6  22.3  16.7  16.3  15.1  11.4  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   86.0  81.0  76.0  73.0  76.0  85.0  71.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  21.0  27.0  13.0  41.0  69.0  -1.0  29.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  57.0  59.0  61.0  62.0  65.0  65.0  69.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -4.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -3.0  -1.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.7%        7.9%        9.3%
 25kt / 24h       25.1%       37.2%       31.1%
 30kt / 24h       16.8%       25.0%       20.9%
 35kt / 24h        9.5%       25.0%       17.3%
 40kt / 24h        8.8%       23.0%       15.9%
 45kt / 36h       22.0%       29.8%       25.9%
 55kt / 36h       11.7%       13.1%       12.4%
 55kt / 48h       36.3%       24.1%       30.2%
 70kt / 48h       17.5%        9.9%       13.7%
 65kt / 72h       36.4%       26.2%       31.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.14

 WP272026 261007 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50    163.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.2  26.2  26.6  22.3  16.7  16.3  15.1  11.4  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  57.0  59.0  61.0  62.0  65.0  65.0  69.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -4.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -3.0  -1.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%