Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP282026 261012 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    150.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.3  22.6  20.1  21.3  16.3  12.7  20.1  20.3  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  24.0  31.0  31.0  32.0  33.0  36.0  42.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  -5.0  -9.0   1.0 -15.0 -15.0  12.0 -32.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  49.0  47.0  46.0  45.0  45.0  43.0  40.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   4.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.3%       11.7%        6.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        4.2%        2.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        3.7%        1.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        3.2%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        1.4%       18.8%       10.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.8%        6.7%        3.7%
 55kt / 48h        9.9%       10.9%       10.4%
 70kt / 48h        2.9%        6.6%        4.7%
 65kt / 72h       16.3%       19.6%       18.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.98

 WP282026 261012 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    150.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.3  22.6  20.1  21.3  16.3  12.7  20.1  20.3  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  49.0  47.0  46.0  45.0  45.0  43.0  40.0  F  F VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   4.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%