Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP282026 261012 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80    149.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  21.0  20.0  17.2  12.8  13.3  17.0  20.6  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  34.0  41.0   3.0 102.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  F
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  -4.0  -6.0 -14.0 -14.0   0.0 -22.0 -16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  47.0  46.0  46.0  43.0  38.0  39.0  35.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0   4.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        9.6%        5.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        3.3%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.7%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        2.6%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        1.8%       17.2%        9.5%
 55kt / 36h        1.2%        5.9%        3.6%
 55kt / 48h       15.2%       11.1%       13.2%
 70kt / 48h        5.3%        6.6%        6.0%
 65kt / 72h       30.1%       22.3%       26.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.92

 WP282026 261012 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80    149.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  21.0  20.0  17.2  12.8  13.3  17.0  20.6  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  47.0  46.0  46.0  43.0  38.0  39.0  35.0  F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0   4.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%