Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP282026 261012 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10    149.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  21.0  18.1  12.7  11.6  14.2  16.0  21.2  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  32.0  32.0  33.0  42.0   4.0 102.0  84.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  F  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  19.0 -14.0 -15.0  -6.0  -1.0 -36.0 -17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  41.0  43.0  44.0  41.0  40.0  36.0  36.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   4.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        2.8%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        5.0%       23.0%       14.0%
 30kt / 24h        2.9%       10.2%        6.5%
 35kt / 24h        2.1%        9.7%        5.9%
 40kt / 24h        2.1%        9.7%        5.9%
 45kt / 36h        7.0%       36.1%       21.5%
 55kt / 36h        4.9%       17.2%       11.0%
 55kt / 48h       23.0%       20.4%       21.7%
 70kt / 48h        9.3%       13.9%       11.6%
 65kt / 72h       42.1%       33.8%       38.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.88

 WP282026 261012 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10    149.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  21.0  18.1  12.7  11.6  14.2  16.0  21.2  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  41.0  43.0  44.0  41.0  40.0  36.0  36.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   4.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%