Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP282026 261012 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50    148.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     55.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.0  17.2  14.5  14.6  13.3  21.4  20.3  31.4  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  33.0  34.0  38.0  34.0 100.0 102.0  93.0  U  U  U  U  U  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  -2.0 -24.0 -15.0   4.0 -21.0  -9.0   0.0  U  U VU  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  42.0  42.0  41.0  39.0  37.0  34.0  33.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   6.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        2.3%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        4.2%       19.5%       11.8%
 30kt / 24h        2.7%        8.1%        5.4%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%        8.0%        5.0%
 40kt / 24h        2.0%        8.0%        5.0%
 45kt / 36h        6.1%       29.1%       17.6%
 55kt / 36h        4.4%       12.6%        8.5%
 55kt / 48h       25.7%       15.3%       20.5%
 70kt / 48h       10.9%        9.8%       10.4%
 65kt / 72h       45.9%       24.7%       35.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.86

 WP282026 261012 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50    148.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     55.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.0  17.2  14.5  14.6  13.3  21.4  20.3  31.4  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  42.0  42.0  41.0  39.0  37.0  34.0  33.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   6.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%