Rapid Intensification Guidance WP282026 261013 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.00 147.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.10 F TC SIZE [%] 47.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.7 14.6 14.4 14.9 14.9 19.4 23.9 25.3 F F F F F N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 36.0 36.0 38.0 41.0 11.0 102.0 101.0 14.0 U U U N U F F U Potential [kt] 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -6.0 -18.0 -2.0 -9.0 5.0 19.0 11.0 15.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 44.0 44.0 44.0 42.0 41.0 38.0 38.0 39.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 2.0 3.0 2.0 3.0 8.0 7.0 N N N N N N U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.7% 0.4% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 8.7% 4.6% 30kt / 24h 0.4% 2.8% 1.6% 35kt / 24h 0.4% 2.2% 1.3% 40kt / 24h 0.4% 2.2% 1.3% 45kt / 36h 1.5% 12.7% 7.1% 55kt / 36h 1.0% 3.5% 2.3% 55kt / 48h 17.6% 8.0% 12.8% 70kt / 48h 6.3% 3.6% 4.9% 65kt / 72h 44.3% 14.4% 29.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.98 WP282026 261013 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.00 147.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F TC SIZE [%] 47.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.7 14.6 14.4 14.9 14.9 19.4 23.9 25.3 N U U U U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 44.0 44.0 44.0 42.0 41.0 38.0 38.0 39.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 2.0 3.0 2.0 3.0 8.0 7.0 N N N N N N F N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%