Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP282026 261013 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80    146.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     50.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.6  14.4  14.9  13.5  19.6  20.8  27.9  24.3  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  39.0  41.0  32.0 101.0 102.0  85.0  34.0  U  U  N  U  F  F  N  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -18.0  -1.0  -9.0   2.0   7.0  25.0 -10.0  28.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  44.0  43.0  39.0  40.0  36.0  38.0  39.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   3.0   2.0   2.0   5.0   6.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.6%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        1.9%       15.4%        8.6%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        5.6%        3.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        5.1%        3.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        5.1%        3.0%
 45kt / 36h        3.9%       23.2%       13.5%
 55kt / 36h        2.8%        8.4%        5.6%
 55kt / 48h       38.0%       14.7%       26.3%
 70kt / 48h       19.8%        9.0%       14.4%
 65kt / 72h       51.0%       22.1%       36.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.96

 WP282026 261013 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80    146.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     50.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.6  14.4  14.9  13.5  19.6  20.8  27.9  24.3  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  44.0  43.0  39.0  40.0  36.0  38.0  39.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   3.0   2.0   2.0   5.0   6.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%