Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP282026 261013 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40    145.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.7  16.3  14.3  14.2  16.7  22.7  25.1  26.9  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  40.0  31.0   4.0 103.0  99.0  23.0  19.0  U  N  U  U  F  F  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -11.0  -7.0   2.0  -7.0  -8.0  11.0  -8.0  -6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  39.0  39.0  42.0  38.0  37.0  38.0  39.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   4.0   2.0   3.0   7.0   6.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.6%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        1.6%       14.6%        8.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        5.5%        3.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        4.9%        2.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        4.9%        2.7%
 45kt / 36h        4.3%       24.7%       14.5%
 55kt / 36h        3.4%        9.4%        6.4%
 55kt / 48h       40.9%       15.3%       28.1%
 70kt / 48h       22.2%        9.5%       15.9%
 65kt / 72h       41.8%       19.7%       30.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.96

 WP282026 261013 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40    145.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.7  16.3  14.3  14.2  16.7  22.7  25.1  26.9  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  39.0  39.0  42.0  38.0  37.0  38.0  39.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   4.0   2.0   3.0   7.0   6.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%