Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP282026 261013 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    144.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     51.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.9  12.5  13.1  18.1  18.7  29.6  27.0  34.8  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  29.0   4.0 101.0 101.0  85.0   2.0  53.0  N  U  U  F  F  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -12.0  -6.0   2.0   4.0   9.0   4.0  20.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  40.0  45.0  42.0  37.0  40.0  42.0  40.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   5.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.9%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        2.2%       16.6%        9.4%
 30kt / 24h        1.3%        6.0%        3.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        5.5%        3.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        5.5%        3.3%
 45kt / 36h        6.6%       27.2%       16.9%
 55kt / 36h        5.0%       10.0%        7.5%
 55kt / 48h       43.2%       13.3%       28.2%
 70kt / 48h       23.8%        8.2%       16.0%
 65kt / 72h       40.4%       15.6%       28.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.00

 WP282026 261013 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    144.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     51.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.9  12.5  13.1  18.1  18.7  29.6  27.0  34.8  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  40.0  45.0  42.0  37.0  40.0  42.0  40.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   5.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%