Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP282026 261014 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.70    143.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     54.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.6  13.0  18.7  18.3  22.4  29.7  32.8  40.5  F  F  N  F  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0   4.0 104.0 105.0  99.0  11.0  26.0  58.0  U  U  F  F  F  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0  -9.0  -3.0   5.0   0.0  14.0  12.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   36.0  42.0  40.0  38.0  36.0  37.0  36.0  35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   6.0   2.0   4.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        2.6%       16.4%        9.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.5%        5.8%        3.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        5.1%        3.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        5.1%        3.1%
 45kt / 36h        6.5%       24.8%       15.6%
 55kt / 36h        4.9%        8.6%        6.8%
 55kt / 48h       38.6%        9.9%       24.2%
 70kt / 48h       19.5%        5.7%       12.6%
 65kt / 72h       35.9%       10.3%       23.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.22

 WP282026 261014 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.70    143.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     54.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.6  13.0  18.7  18.3  22.4  29.7  32.8  40.5  U  U  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   36.0  42.0  40.0  38.0  36.0  37.0  36.0  35.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   6.0   2.0   4.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%