Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP282026 261014 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.30    142.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     48.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.3  16.7  15.6  14.9  24.7  25.9  35.4  27.3  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0 104.0 105.0 102.0  82.0   5.0  56.0   3.0  U  F  F  F  N  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -16.0   0.0  18.0  15.0 -10.0  16.0   1.0  -7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  42.0  39.0  38.0  40.0  44.0  44.0  41.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   3.0   7.0   5.0   7.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        2.0%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        4.2%       20.7%       12.4%
 30kt / 24h        2.4%        7.9%        5.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.6%        6.9%        4.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.6%        6.9%        4.2%
 45kt / 36h        7.3%       27.3%       17.3%
 55kt / 36h        5.7%        9.9%        7.8%
 55kt / 48h       37.5%       11.8%       24.6%
 70kt / 48h       19.0%        6.7%       12.8%
 65kt / 72h       35.6%       13.2%       24.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.22

 WP282026 261014 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.30    142.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     48.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.3  16.7  15.6  14.9  24.7  25.9  35.4  27.3  U  N  U  U  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  42.0  39.0  38.0  40.0  44.0  44.0  41.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   3.0   7.0   5.0   7.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%