Rapid Intensification Guidance WP282026 261014 12UTC Storm Located at : 22.00 142.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 50.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 23.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.60 F TC SIZE [%] 63.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.9 17.5 16.4 19.6 19.5 28.3 29.9 33.1 N F F N N N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 104.0 105.0 103.0 98.0 31.0 2.0 3.0 3.0 F F F F U U U U Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 0.0 13.0 22.0 5.0 28.0 35.0 0.0 -9.0 U U U U U N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 41.0 35.0 36.0 35.0 39.0 40.0 38.0 38.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 2.0 6.0 8.0 5.0 3.0 -1.0 -2.0 N N N U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.2% 6.7% 4.5% 25kt / 24h 17.8% 44.5% 31.1% 30kt / 24h 10.0% 26.7% 18.4% 35kt / 24h 4.6% 25.1% 14.9% 40kt / 24h 4.6% 23.1% 13.8% 45kt / 36h 14.7% 54.4% 34.5% 55kt / 36h 11.6% 34.2% 22.9% 55kt / 48h 43.3% 25.7% 34.5% 70kt / 48h 23.5% 18.4% 21.0% 65kt / 72h 31.6% 21.2% 26.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.18 WP282026 261014 12UTC Storm Located at : 22.00 142.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 63.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.9 17.5 16.4 19.6 19.5 28.3 29.9 33.1 N N U N N N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 41.0 35.0 36.0 35.0 39.0 40.0 38.0 38.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 2.0 6.0 8.0 5.0 3.0 -1.0 -2.0 N N N F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%