Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP292026 261014 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.60    161.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  23.8  26.5  22.5  21.8  20.4  23.0  21.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   80.0  81.0  80.0  76.0  71.0  45.0  32.0  36.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  50.0  63.0  51.0  66.0  48.0  17.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  69.0  66.0  66.0  74.0  72.0  74.0  81.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -4.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.1%        3.6%        3.3%
 25kt / 24h       12.6%       27.2%       19.9%
 30kt / 24h        7.8%       10.0%        8.9%
 35kt / 24h        3.9%        9.7%        6.8%
 40kt / 24h        3.9%        9.7%        6.8%
 45kt / 36h       17.1%       39.9%       28.5%
 55kt / 36h       11.6%       16.8%       14.2%
 55kt / 48h       41.9%       20.7%       31.3%
 70kt / 48h       23.4%       16.7%       20.0%
 65kt / 72h       27.0%       34.4%       30.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.62

 WP292026 261014 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.60    161.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  23.8  26.5  22.5  21.8  20.4  23.0  21.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  69.0  66.0  66.0  74.0  72.0  74.0  81.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -4.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%