Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP292026 261014 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.40    160.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.6  25.7  24.1  19.3  22.2  19.3  20.3  18.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   80.0  77.0  76.0  75.0  58.0   9.0  36.0  37.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  63.0  50.0  68.0  83.0  35.0  14.0  23.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  65.0  66.0  65.0  62.0  60.0  57.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  -3.0  -4.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        2.1%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        8.6%       21.7%       15.1%
 30kt / 24h        4.7%        7.8%        6.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%        7.0%        4.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%        7.0%        4.4%
 45kt / 36h       12.1%       29.5%       20.8%
 55kt / 36h        7.1%       10.6%        8.8%
 55kt / 48h       35.0%       16.3%       25.6%
 70kt / 48h       17.4%       10.8%       14.1%
 65kt / 72h       33.2%       29.2%       31.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.64

 WP292026 261014 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.40    160.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.6  25.7  24.1  19.3  22.2  19.3  20.3  18.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  65.0  66.0  65.0  62.0  60.0  57.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  -3.0  -4.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%