Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP292026 261015 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.70    159.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.6  27.9  21.5  21.2  19.3  22.9  21.2  20.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   75.0  75.0  75.0  70.0  36.0  36.0  36.0  35.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  33.0  56.0  56.0  47.0  32.0  38.0  36.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  68.0  65.0  62.0  63.0  63.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0   0.0  -5.0  -5.0  -3.0  -4.0 -11.0  F  N  N  F  F  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.1%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        4.3%       14.3%        9.3%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%        4.9%        3.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        4.0%        2.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        3.8%        2.3%
 45kt / 36h        5.6%       18.2%       11.9%
 55kt / 36h        2.8%        5.5%        4.1%
 55kt / 48h       18.0%       10.1%       14.0%
 70kt / 48h        6.5%        5.4%        6.0%
 65kt / 72h       23.5%       20.2%       21.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.50

 WP292026 261015 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.70    159.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.6  27.9  21.5  21.2  19.3  22.9  21.2  20.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  68.0  65.0  62.0  63.0  63.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0   0.0  -5.0  -5.0  -3.0  -4.0 -11.0  U  N  N  U  U  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%