Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP292026 261015 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.90    158.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.6  18.3  20.9  20.0  17.8  21.0  17.7  16.2  N  F  N  N  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   75.0  75.0  73.0  63.0  10.0  36.0  35.0  34.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  42.0  36.0  47.0  69.0  52.0  61.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  74.0  72.0  69.0  69.0  69.0  71.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -4.0  -2.0  -2.0  -5.0  -6.0  -7.0  N  N  F  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        2.1%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        8.0%       24.4%       16.2%
 30kt / 24h        3.3%       11.0%        7.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        9.8%        5.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        8.3%        4.7%
 45kt / 36h        8.6%       32.2%       20.4%
 55kt / 36h        4.2%       13.5%        8.9%
 55kt / 48h       19.1%       20.0%       19.5%
 70kt / 48h        7.3%       12.3%        9.8%
 65kt / 72h       27.1%       37.9%       32.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.50

 WP292026 261015 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.90    158.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.6  18.3  20.9  20.0  17.8  21.0  17.7  16.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  74.0  72.0  69.0  69.0  69.0  71.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -4.0  -2.0  -2.0  -5.0  -6.0  -7.0  N  N  U  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%