Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP292026 261015 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.00    157.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     84.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     77.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.4  23.2  25.0  21.0  19.7  20.3  16.0  21.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  102.0 101.0 106.0 108.0 113.0 114.0 120.0 118.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  36.0  47.0  83.0  43.0  37.0  62.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  66.0  65.0  63.0  65.0  60.0  66.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -5.0  -4.0  -2.0  -6.0  -6.0 -13.0  -7.0  N  F  F  N  F  F VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.0%        8.7%        6.8%
 25kt / 24h       33.2%       54.7%       43.9%
 30kt / 24h       16.0%       37.0%       26.5%
 35kt / 24h        8.0%       36.9%       22.4%
 40kt / 24h        4.0%       30.1%       17.0%
 45kt / 36h       32.9%       67.1%       50.0%
 55kt / 36h       22.7%       47.6%       35.1%
 55kt / 48h       44.2%       49.0%       46.6%
 70kt / 48h       26.6%       42.5%       34.5%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       77.2%       69.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.48

 WP292026 261015 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.00    157.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.4  23.2  25.0  21.0  19.7  20.3  16.0  21.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  66.0  65.0  63.0  65.0  60.0  66.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -5.0  -4.0  -2.0  -6.0  -6.0 -13.0  -7.0  N  U  U  N  U  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%