Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP292026 261015 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.60    156.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.9  20.0  19.1  17.5  20.9  16.9  15.8  13.8  N  N  N  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   73.0  63.0  43.0  10.0  36.0  35.0  35.0  19.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  47.0  83.0  69.0  52.0  61.0  58.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  69.0  68.0  67.0  69.0  71.0  72.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -6.0  -6.0  -7.0  -4.0  F  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.3%       11.0%       10.7%
 25kt / 24h       29.4%       52.6%       41.0%
 30kt / 24h       17.8%       37.3%       27.6%
 35kt / 24h       11.0%       37.3%       24.2%
 40kt / 24h        8.3%       37.3%       22.8%
 45kt / 36h       24.6%       54.9%       39.7%
 55kt / 36h       14.9%       35.0%       25.0%
 55kt / 48h       25.3%       35.7%       30.5%
 70kt / 48h       11.1%       26.9%       19.0%
 65kt / 72h       19.6%       47.6%       33.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.50

 WP292026 261015 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.60    156.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.9  20.0  19.1  17.5  20.9  16.9  15.8  13.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  69.0  68.0  67.0  69.0  71.0  72.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -6.0  -6.0  -7.0  -4.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%