Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP292026 261023 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.60    122.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.7  26.9  29.5  37.2  40.7  58.0  67.3  80.5  U  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  22.0  17.0  13.0   5.0   1.0  31.0 110.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  F
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  -5.0  -9.0   0.0   4.0  26.0  41.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  51.0  50.0  49.0  51.0  52.0  48.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  29.0  11.0   4.0  10.0  10.0   6.0  -9.0  -6.0 VU  U  N  U  U  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        0.6%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        0.2%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.40

 WP292026 261023 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.60    122.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.7  26.9  29.5  37.2  40.7  58.0  67.3  80.5  N  N  N  F VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  51.0  50.0  49.0  51.0  52.0  48.0  45.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  29.0  11.0   4.0  10.0  10.0   6.0  -9.0  -6.0 VF  F  N  F  F  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.2%       14.5%        7.4%