Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP302026 261023 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.90    166.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.2  12.1  14.2  16.9  13.7  13.9  23.6  22.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  74.0  75.0  74.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0  56.0  71.0  93.0  52.0  85.0  47.0  -8.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  67.0  60.0  54.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.3%        8.1%        5.7%
 25kt / 24h       26.8%       54.4%       40.6%
 30kt / 24h       14.9%       33.3%       24.1%
 35kt / 24h        8.2%       33.3%       20.8%
 40kt / 24h        8.2%       33.3%       20.8%
 45kt / 36h       35.1%       68.5%       51.8%
 55kt / 36h       25.1%       48.2%       36.7%
 55kt / 48h       41.9%       57.7%       49.8%
 70kt / 48h       25.1%       51.7%       38.4%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       69.0%       65.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.80

 WP302026 261023 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.90    166.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.2  12.1  14.2  16.9  13.7  13.9  23.6  22.1  U  U  U  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  67.0  60.0  54.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%