Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP302026 261023 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.60    166.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.0  12.9  15.2  14.5  12.4  15.8  23.4  22.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  71.0  93.0  92.0  82.0  64.0   8.0   4.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  64.0  57.0  53.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.4%       15.8%       13.1%
 25kt / 24h       46.5%       69.4%       58.0%
 30kt / 24h       28.5%       55.1%       41.8%
 35kt / 24h       20.3%       55.1%       37.7%
 40kt / 24h       20.3%       55.1%       37.7%
 45kt / 36h       46.0%       80.0%       63.0%
 55kt / 36h       33.4%       67.0%       50.2%
 55kt / 48h       42.1%       68.0%       55.1%
 70kt / 48h       27.5%       64.7%       46.1%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       70.2%       66.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.80

 WP302026 261023 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.60    166.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.0  12.9  15.2  14.5  12.4  15.8  23.4  22.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  64.0  57.0  53.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%