Rapid Intensification Guidance WP302026 261024 00UTC Storm Located at : 10.40 166.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 31.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 12.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 70.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.5 19.7 20.4 17.9 15.1 25.7 24.4 26.7 F N N F F N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 73.0 73.0 73.0 73.0 73.0 73.0 73.0 73.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 27.0 68.0 56.0 30.0 67.0 47.0 -8.0 49.0 U N N N N N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 67.0 69.0 67.0 62.0 55.0 49.0 40.0 N N N N N U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 1.0 8.0 N N N N N N N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 18.7% 16.8% 17.7% 25kt / 24h 42.8% 58.4% 50.6% 30kt / 24h 33.3% 47.5% 40.4% 35kt / 24h 29.6% 47.5% 38.5% 40kt / 24h 29.6% 47.5% 38.5% 45kt / 36h 42.7% 64.3% 53.5% 55kt / 36h 31.2% 46.2% 38.7% 55kt / 48h 49.3% 43.8% 46.6% 70kt / 48h 25.5% 34.5% 30.0% 65kt / 72h 45.4% 40.0% 42.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.00 WP302026 261024 00UTC Storm Located at : 10.40 166.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 70.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.5 19.7 20.4 17.9 15.1 25.7 24.4 26.7 N N N N U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 67.0 69.0 67.0 62.0 55.0 49.0 40.0 N N N N N F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 1.0 8.0 N N N N N N N F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%