Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP302026 261024 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.10    165.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  20.6  21.9  22.4  15.4  16.4  24.1  24.3  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   73.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  71.0  83.0  93.0  84.0  63.0  73.0  70.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  66.0  62.0  64.0  60.0  60.0  62.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       33.0%       31.0%       32.0%
 25kt / 24h       63.4%       75.9%       69.6%
 30kt / 24h       49.6%       69.7%       59.7%
 35kt / 24h       41.9%       69.7%       55.8%
 40kt / 24h       41.9%       69.7%       55.8%
 45kt / 36h       51.0%       77.5%       64.2%
 55kt / 36h       34.2%       64.1%       49.2%
 55kt / 48h       44.4%       64.7%       54.6%
 70kt / 48h       26.6%       55.1%       40.9%
 65kt / 72h       59.9%       60.4%       60.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.94

 WP302026 261024 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.10    165.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  20.6  21.9  22.4  15.4  16.4  24.1  24.3  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  66.0  62.0  64.0  60.0  60.0  62.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%