Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP302026 261024 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.60    165.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.2  17.5  20.4  19.2  17.4  23.3  20.6  15.3  N  F  N  N  F  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   73.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0  68.0  49.0   0.0  17.0   3.0  49.0  21.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  64.0  63.0  60.0  60.0  62.0  63.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   3.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.8%       13.8%       12.3%
 25kt / 24h       38.7%       57.8%       48.2%
 30kt / 24h       22.8%       48.0%       35.4%
 35kt / 24h       15.6%       48.0%       31.8%
 40kt / 24h        8.7%       44.4%       26.6%
 45kt / 36h       28.3%       52.6%       40.5%
 55kt / 36h       17.4%       32.8%       25.1%
 55kt / 48h       32.8%       34.7%       33.7%
 70kt / 48h       15.9%       18.1%       17.0%
 65kt / 72h       33.0%       33.0%       33.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.94

 WP302026 261024 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.60    165.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.2  17.5  20.4  19.2  17.4  23.3  20.6  15.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  64.0  63.0  60.0  60.0  62.0  63.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   3.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%