Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP302026 261024 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.10    165.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  19.0  18.2  18.4  20.6  24.7  20.0  20.9  F  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   73.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    68.0  50.0   0.0  15.0  -2.0  32.0  10.0  42.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  64.0  61.0  61.0  59.0  62.0  63.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.7%       15.0%       13.3%
 25kt / 24h       40.5%       60.1%       50.3%
 30kt / 24h       24.3%       51.5%       37.9%
 35kt / 24h       18.3%       51.5%       34.9%
 40kt / 24h        8.6%       47.9%       28.2%
 45kt / 36h       28.5%       53.3%       40.9%
 55kt / 36h       18.0%       34.2%       26.1%
 55kt / 48h       32.0%       34.7%       33.4%
 70kt / 48h       15.5%       18.1%       16.8%
 65kt / 72h       33.3%       34.1%       33.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.90

 WP302026 261024 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.10    165.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  19.0  18.2  18.4  20.6  24.7  20.0  20.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  64.0  61.0  61.0  59.0  62.0  63.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%