Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP302026 261025 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.50    165.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     82.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  18.9  19.1  14.2  22.5  26.5  21.5  23.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  65.0  64.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   102.0  85.0  78.0 104.0  23.0  62.0  45.0  63.0  F  F  N  F  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  58.0  57.0  57.0  54.0  59.0  64.0  63.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.3%       18.2%       15.7%
 25kt / 24h       54.4%       69.8%       62.1%
 30kt / 24h       35.4%       64.0%       49.7%
 35kt / 24h       23.3%       64.0%       43.7%
 40kt / 24h       23.3%       63.0%       43.2%
 45kt / 36h       38.3%       58.5%       48.4%
 55kt / 36h       22.2%       37.8%       30.0%
 55kt / 48h       42.4%       39.9%       41.2%
 70kt / 48h       22.5%       19.2%       20.8%
 65kt / 72h       42.6%       30.6%       36.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.76

 WP302026 261025 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.50    165.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  18.9  19.1  14.2  22.5  26.5  21.5  23.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  58.0  57.0  57.0  54.0  59.0  64.0  63.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%