Rapid Intensification Guidance WP302026 261025 06UTC Storm Located at : 12.00 165.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 72.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 46.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 84.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.3 20.1 17.7 17.9 22.8 19.8 20.0 24.6 N N F F N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 63.0 63.0 63.0 63.0 63.0 63.0 63.0 62.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 79.0 69.0 84.0 68.0 28.0 27.0 49.0 17.0 N N N N U U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 57.0 56.0 55.0 53.0 55.0 58.0 53.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 26.8% 22.7% 24.7% 25kt / 24h 58.7% 69.9% 64.3% 30kt / 24h 45.6% 66.3% 55.9% 35kt / 24h 40.7% 66.3% 53.5% 40kt / 24h 40.7% 66.3% 53.5% 45kt / 36h 41.3% 54.4% 47.9% 55kt / 36h 25.3% 33.9% 29.6% 55kt / 48h 42.8% 39.1% 41.0% 70kt / 48h 22.8% 19.0% 20.9% 65kt / 72h 37.0% 26.2% 31.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.80 WP302026 261025 06UTC Storm Located at : 12.00 165.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 84.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.3 20.1 17.7 17.9 22.8 19.8 20.0 24.6 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 57.0 56.0 55.0 53.0 55.0 58.0 53.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%