Rapid Intensification Guidance WP302026 261025 12UTC Storm Located at : 12.80 164.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 70.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 42.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 74.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.7 17.7 18.1 19.5 18.2 21.3 26.9 27.0 N F F N F N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 63.0 63.0 63.0 63.0 63.0 62.0 89.0 76.0 N N N N N N F N Potential [kt] 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 39.0 54.0 32.0 47.0 -3.0 24.0 35.0 26.0 N N N N U U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 54.0 52.0 51.0 49.0 47.0 45.0 42.0 U U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 76.1% 53.2% 64.7% 25kt / 24h 89.1% 85.1% 87.1% 30kt / 24h 89.1% 85.1% 87.1% 35kt / 24h 89.1% 85.1% 87.1% 40kt / 24h 89.1% 85.1% 87.1% 45kt / 36h 55.9% 60.6% 58.3% 55kt / 36h 37.2% 43.4% 40.3% 55kt / 48h 40.5% 42.5% 41.5% 70kt / 48h 21.0% 18.7% 19.8% 65kt / 72h 27.2% 17.2% 22.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.92 WP302026 261025 12UTC Storm Located at : 12.80 164.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 74.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.7 17.7 18.1 19.5 18.2 21.3 26.9 27.0 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 54.0 52.0 51.0 49.0 47.0 45.0 42.0 F F F F F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1%