Rapid Intensification Guidance WP302026 261025 18UTC Storm Located at : 13.40 163.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 85.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 73.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 79.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.2 18.5 19.4 19.4 18.6 25.4 24.6 26.7 F N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 63.0 63.0 63.0 63.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 54.0 32.0 48.0 5.0 4.0 22.0 54.0 23.0 N N N U U U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 53.0 51.0 51.0 46.0 52.0 48.0 44.0 U U U U VU U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 72.1% 49.6% 60.9% 25kt / 24h 77.3% 79.6% 78.5% 30kt / 24h 77.3% 79.6% 78.5% 35kt / 24h 77.3% 79.6% 78.5% 40kt / 24h 77.3% 79.6% 78.5% 45kt / 36h 59.8% 57.5% 58.6% 55kt / 36h 33.8% 40.6% 37.2% 55kt / 48h 37.1% 32.4% 34.7% 70kt / 48h 18.2% 14.5% 16.3% 65kt / 72h 16.7% 11.4% 14.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.96 WP302026 261025 18UTC Storm Located at : 13.40 163.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 79.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.2 18.5 19.4 19.4 18.6 25.4 24.6 26.7 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 53.0 51.0 51.0 46.0 52.0 48.0 44.0 F F F F VF F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2%