Rapid Intensification Guidance WP302026 261026 00UTC Storm Located at : 13.80 163.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 99.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 97.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 95.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.3 18.2 21.4 19.8 19.2 20.0 24.2 20.4 N F N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 74.0 74.0 74.0 74.0 73.0 72.0 72.0 69.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 32.0 38.0 44.0 44.0 19.0 48.0 28.0 35.0 N N N N U N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 50.0 48.0 45.0 44.0 43.0 39.0 36.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 -2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 42.9% 28.8% 35.9% 25kt / 24h 55.5% 64.6% 60.0% 30kt / 24h 44.4% 64.6% 54.5% 35kt / 24h 39.1% 64.6% 51.9% 40kt / 24h 37.1% 60.9% 49.0% 45kt / 36h 47.5% 38.9% 43.2% 55kt / 36h 24.5% 20.8% 22.7% 55kt / 48h 40.4% 28.0% 34.2% 70kt / 48h 20.2% 8.7% 14.5% 65kt / 72h 34.4% 10.9% 22.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.70 WP302026 261026 00UTC Storm Located at : 13.80 163.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 95.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.3 18.2 21.4 19.8 19.2 20.0 24.2 20.4 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 50.0 48.0 45.0 44.0 43.0 39.0 36.0 F F F VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 -2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.9% 0.4%