Rapid Intensification Guidance WP302026 261026 06UTC Storm Located at : 14.00 163.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 35.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 89.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 60.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 85.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.6 17.8 17.2 15.9 23.3 25.4 22.1 17.8 N F F F N N N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 74.0 74.0 74.0 74.0 72.0 72.0 72.0 54.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 1.0 -12.0 8.0 14.0 22.0 29.0 15.0 16.0 U U U U U N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 48.0 46.0 45.0 41.0 38.0 37.0 34.0 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 5.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 58.0% 25.1% 41.6% 25kt / 24h 37.7% 33.9% 35.8% 30kt / 24h 35.1% 31.3% 33.2% 35kt / 24h 31.9% 31.3% 31.6% 40kt / 24h 25.2% 23.7% 24.4% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.70 WP302026 261026 06UTC Storm Located at : 14.00 163.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 35.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F TC SIZE [%] 85.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.6 17.8 17.2 15.9 23.3 25.4 22.1 17.8 N N N U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 48.0 46.0 45.0 41.0 38.0 37.0 34.0 F F VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 5.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 4.5% 2.3%