Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP302026 261026 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.10    162.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.5  14.0  13.8  16.5  20.2  25.2  20.9  20.8  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   74.0  74.0  74.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  69.0  28.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0   4.0  14.0  30.0  37.0  20.0  12.0  -2.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  48.0  46.0  45.0  47.0  44.0  42.0  37.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  -1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       59.7%       22.4%       41.0%
 25kt / 24h       44.4%       31.6%       38.0%
 30kt / 24h       44.4%       27.6%       36.0%
 35kt / 24h       44.4%       27.0%       35.7%
 40kt / 24h       44.4%       22.5%       33.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.70

 WP302026 261026 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.10    162.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.5  14.0  13.8  16.5  20.2  25.2  20.9  20.8  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  48.0  46.0  45.0  47.0  44.0  42.0  37.0  F  F VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  -1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.8%        1.9%