Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP302026 261026 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.10    162.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     96.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.0  11.0  11.0  13.9  21.9  23.6  16.6  16.2  F  F  F  F  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   74.0  74.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  56.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  35.0  34.0  47.0  45.0  -9.0 -27.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  49.0  47.0  48.0  41.0  43.0  37.0  35.0  U  U VU  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.4%        7.5%        8.9%
 25kt / 24h       17.0%       20.8%       18.9%
 30kt / 24h       11.6%       19.1%       15.3%
 35kt / 24h        7.3%       17.4%       12.4%
 40kt / 24h        7.3%       11.5%        9.4%
 45kt / 36h       62.9%       11.2%       37.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.72

 WP302026 261026 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.10    162.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.0  11.0  11.0  13.9  21.9  23.6  16.6  16.2  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  49.0  47.0  48.0  41.0  43.0  37.0  35.0  F  F VF  F VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        4.4%        2.2%