Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP302026 261027 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30    162.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.5  17.1  18.7  19.9  21.7  20.6  16.5  16.3  F  F  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   69.0  70.0  72.0  74.0  75.0  67.0  41.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  43.0  31.0  27.0  26.0  17.0   3.0   3.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  48.0  48.0  47.0  40.0  40.0  35.0  36.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.6%        5.3%        6.5%
 25kt / 24h        8.6%       11.0%        9.8%
 30kt / 24h        6.6%        9.0%        7.8%
 35kt / 24h        3.7%        7.6%        5.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%        5.1%        3.4%
 45kt / 36h       45.2%        5.2%       25.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.62

 WP302026 261027 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30    162.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.5  17.1  18.7  19.9  21.7  20.6  16.5  16.3  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  48.0  48.0  47.0  40.0  40.0  35.0  36.0  F  F  F VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        5.9%        3.0%