Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP302026 261027 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50    162.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.1  19.0  19.9  23.8  26.7  16.7  16.3  12.2  F  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   70.0  72.0  74.0  74.0  73.0  58.0  43.0  38.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  31.0  27.0  46.0   9.0  17.0   0.0  -6.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  49.0  48.0  40.0  43.0  40.0  38.0  36.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   9.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.3%        7.3%        9.8%
 25kt / 24h       13.6%       14.6%       14.1%
 30kt / 24h       11.4%       11.3%       11.4%
 35kt / 24h        6.0%       10.2%        8.1%
 40kt / 24h        6.0%        7.8%        6.9%
 45kt / 36h       42.8%        6.2%       24.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.60

 WP302026 261027 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50    162.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.1  19.0  19.9  23.8  26.7  16.7  16.3  12.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  49.0  48.0  40.0  43.0  40.0  38.0  36.0  F  F  F VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   9.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        4.7%        2.4%