Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP302026 261027 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50    161.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     91.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     64.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  21.1  24.3  23.9  23.4  13.6  16.6  19.3  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   72.0  74.0  74.0  75.0  70.0   8.0  43.0  35.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]         60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  16.0  43.0  21.0  11.0   0.0   8.0  17.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  49.0  44.0  45.0  46.0  44.0  47.0  42.0 VU  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0   4.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.3%        8.0%       10.1%
 25kt / 24h       14.2%       15.7%       15.0%
 30kt / 24h       10.7%       12.7%       11.7%
 35kt / 24h        6.6%       11.9%        9.3%
 40kt / 24h        6.6%        7.9%        7.3%
 45kt / 36h       40.6%        7.4%       24.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.58

 WP302026 261027 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50    161.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  21.1  24.3  23.9  23.4  13.6  16.6  19.3  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  49.0  44.0  45.0  46.0  44.0  47.0  42.0 VF  F VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0   4.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        6.3%        3.2%