Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP302026 261027 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    160.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     87.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  24.3  23.7  25.1  17.1  14.2  17.5  14.4  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   74.0  74.0  75.0  73.0  55.0  44.0  37.0  30.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  43.0  21.0   2.0  20.0  -6.0  20.0  31.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  43.0  45.0  47.0  44.0  46.0  43.0  40.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   1.0   7.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       30.2%       12.6%       21.4%
 25kt / 24h       20.3%       18.1%       19.2%
 30kt / 24h       16.4%       15.0%       15.7%
 35kt / 24h       13.9%       14.3%       14.1%
 40kt / 24h        9.2%        8.9%        9.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.54

 WP302026 261027 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    160.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  24.3  23.7  25.1  17.1  14.2  17.5  14.4  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  43.0  45.0  47.0  44.0  46.0  43.0  40.0  F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   1.0   7.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        9.8%        4.9%