Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP302026 261028 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    159.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     84.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.1  25.8  26.9  20.4  12.6  12.5  14.4  13.9  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   71.0  72.0  73.0  72.0  11.0  57.0  41.0  21.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  24.0  25.0  14.0  -1.0  14.0  19.0  43.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  47.0  49.0  47.0  45.0  48.0  44.0  39.0 VU VU  U VU VU  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   2.0   0.0  -5.0  -1.0   4.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       43.3%       13.2%       28.3%
 25kt / 24h       22.6%       17.7%       20.1%
 30kt / 24h       19.2%       14.2%       16.7%
 35kt / 24h       16.6%       13.6%       15.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.32

 WP302026 261028 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    159.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.1  25.8  26.9  20.4  12.6  12.5  14.4  13.9  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  47.0  49.0  47.0  45.0  48.0  44.0  39.0 VF VF  F VF VF  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   2.0   0.0  -5.0  -1.0   4.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        8.2%        4.1%