Rapid Intensification Guidance WP302026 261028 06UTC Storm Located at : 15.10 158.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 130.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 100.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 95.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 96.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.8 26.9 20.4 14.0 15.2 13.7 11.6 12.3 N N N F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 72.0 73.0 71.0 63.0 58.0 50.0 31.0 13.0 N N N N N N U U Potential [kt] 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 24.0 25.0 13.0 10.0 -1.0 9.0 13.0 40.0 U U U U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 49.0 47.0 47.0 48.0 46.0 45.0 43.0 VU U VU VU U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 2.0 0.0 -3.0 4.0 5.0 -2.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 44.7% 10.4% 27.5% 25kt / 24h 20.7% 14.8% 17.7% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.34 WP302026 261028 06UTC Storm Located at : 15.10 158.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 130.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 96.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.8 26.9 20.4 14.0 15.2 13.7 11.6 12.3 N N N U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 49.0 47.0 47.0 48.0 46.0 45.0 43.0 VF F VF VF F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 2.0 0.0 -3.0 4.0 5.0 -2.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 6.8% 3.4%