Rapid Intensification Guidance WP302026 261028 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.40 157.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 130.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 98.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 91.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 99.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.4 21.3 17.7 14.7 17.6 15.5 14.9 15.7 N N F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 73.0 71.0 63.0 15.0 57.0 42.0 25.0 20.0 N N N U N N U U Potential [kt] 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 27.0 14.0 22.0 1.0 -3.0 20.0 32.0 39.0 U U U U U U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 45.0 44.0 43.0 46.0 46.0 44.0 41.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 2.0 N N N F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 21.3% 7.2% 14.3% 25kt / 24h 11.0% 9.7% 10.4% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.44 WP302026 261028 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.40 157.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 130.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F TC SIZE [%] 99.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.4 21.3 17.7 14.7 17.6 15.5 14.9 15.7 N N N U N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 45.0 44.0 43.0 46.0 46.0 44.0 41.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 2.0 N N N U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 7.4% 3.7%