Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP922026 260612 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      6.20    173.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.3  20.5  20.5  20.5  20.5  20.5  20.5  20.5  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  108.0 108.0 108.0 108.0 108.0 108.0 108.0 108.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    79.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        8.2%       24.6%       16.4%
 30kt / 24h        3.3%        7.9%        5.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        5.9%        3.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        5.9%        3.4%
 45kt / 36h       16.3%       44.4%       30.3%
 55kt / 36h       12.3%       19.1%       15.7%
 55kt / 48h       42.0%       31.3%       36.6%
 70kt / 48h       27.1%       29.7%       28.4%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       75.0%       68.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.70

 WP922026 260612 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      6.20    173.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.3  20.5  20.5  20.5  20.5  20.5  20.5  20.5  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%