Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP922026 260615 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.20    161.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     37.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.5  10.7  11.0  12.3  14.2  15.8  16.6  19.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  109.0 111.0 113.0 112.0 113.0 115.0 117.0 118.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0  17.0  27.0  17.0  16.0  11.0  -7.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  54.0  53.0  51.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        2.5%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        8.9%       29.8%       19.4%
 30kt / 24h        5.1%       12.1%        8.6%
 35kt / 24h        3.7%        9.8%        6.7%
 40kt / 24h        3.7%        9.8%        6.7%
 45kt / 36h       21.5%       50.9%       36.2%
 55kt / 36h       21.0%       27.0%       24.0%
 55kt / 48h       65.6%       38.0%       51.8%
 70kt / 48h       53.7%       34.1%       43.9%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       72.5%       67.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.90

 WP922026 260615 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.20    161.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     37.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.5  10.7  11.0  12.3  14.2  15.8  16.6  19.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  54.0  53.0  51.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%