Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP922026 260816 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.20    158.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.1  31.0  28.8  28.5  24.6  29.4  28.2  31.5  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   93.0  91.0  78.0  62.0  63.0  58.0  75.0  77.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  43.0  32.0  40.0  53.0  53.0  47.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  74.0  73.0  75.0  78.0  79.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  -1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        4.2%       15.1%        9.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        5.4%        3.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        4.5%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.2%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        2.4%       24.8%       13.6%
 55kt / 36h        1.2%        9.4%        5.3%
 55kt / 48h       13.5%       11.2%       12.4%
 70kt / 48h        4.5%        8.4%        6.4%
 65kt / 72h       23.6%       30.2%       26.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.58

 WP922026 260816 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.20    158.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.1  31.0  28.8  28.5  24.6  29.4  28.2  31.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  74.0  73.0  75.0  78.0  79.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  -1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%