Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP922026 260817 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.20    157.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        45.3  39.9  33.6  31.9  20.2  20.1  19.2  17.0 VU  U  U  U  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   86.0  83.0  61.0  56.0  13.0  75.0  70.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0  56.0  72.0  77.0  60.0  29.0  37.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  74.0  71.0  69.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  70.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   8.0   4.0   3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.6%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        5.8%        3.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        9.5%        3.5%        6.5%
 70kt / 48h        2.7%        2.3%        2.5%
 65kt / 72h       33.6%       23.4%       28.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.66

 WP922026 260817 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.20    157.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        45.3  39.9  33.6  31.9  20.2  20.1  19.2  17.0 VF  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  74.0  71.0  69.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  70.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   8.0   4.0   3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%