Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP952026 260304 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      5.50    152.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.8  27.7  28.8  22.3  14.2  17.8  22.9  27.2  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  137.0 126.0 113.0  95.0  83.0  84.0  88.0  77.0 VF  F  F  F  N  N  F  N
 Potential [kt]        150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 147.0 140.1 135.7 129.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    65.0  54.0  25.0  23.0  52.0  87.0 120.0 140.0  N  N  U  U  N  F  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  75.0  74.0  77.0  78.0  75.0  67.0  69.0  N  F  N  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        2.8%       10.5%        6.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        2.4%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        1.6%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        7.2%       26.2%       16.7%
 55kt / 36h        5.2%        7.8%        6.5%
 55kt / 48h       49.5%       15.4%       32.5%
 70kt / 48h       26.1%       14.5%       20.3%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       50.0%       56.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.86

 WP952026 260304 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      5.50    152.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.8  27.7  28.8  22.3  14.2  17.8  22.9  27.2  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  75.0  74.0  77.0  78.0  75.0  67.0  69.0  N  U  N  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%