Rapid Intensification Guidance WP952026 260305 00UTC Storm Located at : 7.90 150.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 15.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 9.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.90 F TC SIZE [%] 58.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.2 11.0 13.0 16.4 26.7 34.2 44.8 51.9 F F F F N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 91.0 87.0 83.0 84.0 85.0 87.0 89.0 85.0 F N N N N N F N Potential [kt] 150.0 147.0 142.3 142.3 137.9 135.7 135.7 131.5 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 39.0 36.0 57.0 77.0 113.0 158.0 175.0 142.0 N N N N F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 74.0 75.0 75.0 73.0 68.0 65.0 65.0 64.0 N F F N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -3.0 -4.0 -4.0 -5.0 N N N N N F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 2.2% 1.3% 25kt / 24h 6.9% 25.5% 16.2% 30kt / 24h 2.9% 9.7% 6.3% 35kt / 24h 1.2% 7.4% 4.3% 40kt / 24h 1.2% 7.4% 4.3% 45kt / 36h 12.2% 42.8% 27.5% 55kt / 36h 9.8% 20.4% 15.1% 55kt / 48h 44.4% 26.4% 35.4% 70kt / 48h 26.4% 19.2% 22.8% 65kt / 72h 62.6% 33.3% 47.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.34 WP952026 260305 00UTC Storm Located at : 7.90 150.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 15.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 58.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.2 11.0 13.0 16.4 26.7 34.2 44.8 51.9 U U U U N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 74.0 75.0 75.0 73.0 68.0 65.0 65.0 64.0 N U U N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -3.0 -4.0 -4.0 -5.0 N N N N N U U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%