Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP952026 260305 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      5.30    147.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     44.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  33.0  32.9  32.3  35.4  29.3  17.4  21.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  146.0 135.0 124.0 112.0  90.0  75.0  84.0  89.0 VF VF  F  F  F  N  N  F
 Potential [kt]        150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 147.0 142.3 135.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  59.0  70.0  81.0 128.0 165.0 222.0 208.0  N  N  N  N  F VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  82.0  84.0  85.0  85.0  82.0  80.0  76.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   2.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        3.4%       10.5%        6.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.1%        2.3%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        1.5%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        1.4%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        5.6%       16.8%       11.2%
 55kt / 36h        3.3%        3.8%        3.5%
 55kt / 48h       45.7%        8.1%       26.9%
 70kt / 48h       25.1%        6.3%       15.7%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       52.8%       57.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.96

 WP952026 260305 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      5.30    147.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     44.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  33.0  32.9  32.3  35.4  29.3  17.4  21.0  N  F  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  82.0  84.0  85.0  85.0  82.0  80.0  76.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   2.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%