Rapid Intensification Guidance WP952026 260305 18UTC Storm Located at : 5.50 146.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 15.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 11.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 7.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.50 F TC SIZE [%] 82.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.9 17.2 18.6 20.0 22.9 25.7 29.1 42.6 F F N N N N N VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 130.0 124.0 104.0 95.0 77.0 77.0 83.0 90.0 VF F F F N N N F Potential [kt] 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 149.3 144.6 142.3 137.9 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 98.0 106.0 121.0 136.0 166.0 196.0 204.0 170.0 F F F VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 82.0 85.0 83.4 81.9 78.7 75.6 68.0 65.0 F F F F F F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -1.1 -1.7 -5.0 -20.0 N N N N N N F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.5% 1.9% 1.2% 25kt / 24h 13.8% 30.9% 22.4% 30kt / 24h 5.3% 10.9% 8.1% 35kt / 24h 1.4% 8.4% 4.9% 40kt / 24h 1.4% 8.4% 4.9% 45kt / 36h 25.6% 50.4% 38.0% 55kt / 36h 16.7% 23.6% 20.2% 55kt / 48h 59.9% 36.4% 48.1% 70kt / 48h 43.1% 35.7% 39.4% 65kt / 72h 62.6% 70.0% 66.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.84 WP952026 260305 18UTC Storm Located at : 5.50 146.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 15.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 82.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.9 17.2 18.6 20.0 22.9 25.7 29.1 42.6 N N N N N N N VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 82.0 85.0 83.4 81.9 78.7 75.6 68.0 65.0 U U U U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -1.1 -1.7 -5.0 -20.0 N N N N N N U VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%