Rapid Intensification Guidance WP952026 260306 12UTC Storm Located at : 7.10 142.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 15.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 15.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 8.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 98.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.0 16.8 20.5 19.9 22.8 37.6 43.0 49.8 N F N N N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 83.0 75.0 73.0 77.0 84.0 87.0 90.0 91.0 N N N N N N F F Potential [kt] 150.0 149.3 147.0 144.6 142.3 137.9 135.7 135.7 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 167.0 177.0 197.0 208.0 248.0 233.0 239.0 169.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 79.0 77.0 72.0 73.0 68.0 63.0 52.0 44.0 F F N N N N U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 5.0 3.0 -1.0 -3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.2% 1.1% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 11.8% 26.2% 19.0% 30kt / 24h 3.4% 7.7% 5.5% 35kt / 24h 1.0% 6.5% 3.7% 40kt / 24h 1.0% 6.5% 3.7% 45kt / 36h 22.5% 46.4% 34.5% 55kt / 36h 10.1% 18.3% 14.2% 55kt / 48h 73.8% 48.8% 61.3% 70kt / 48h 48.8% 25.2% 37.0% 65kt / 72h 62.6% 48.6% 55.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.40 WP952026 260306 12UTC Storm Located at : 7.10 142.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 15.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 98.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.0 16.8 20.5 19.9 22.8 37.6 43.0 49.8 N N N N N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 79.0 77.0 72.0 73.0 68.0 63.0 52.0 44.0 U U N N N N F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 5.0 3.0 -1.0 -3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%