Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP952026 260307 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.00    140.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.4  39.1  41.1  43.1  32.2  27.1  26.3  31.2 VU  U VU VU  U  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   85.0  80.0  80.0  82.0  88.0  89.0  89.0  87.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Potential [kt]        145.0 144.3 144.3 144.3 145.0 145.0 145.0 144.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   133.0 130.0 113.0 106.0 108.0 147.0  83.0  25.0 VF  F  F  F  F VF  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  80.0  83.0  82.0  80.0  78.0  71.0  65.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.5%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.4%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        3.6%        2.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h       17.0%        2.7%        9.8%
 70kt / 48h        5.3%        1.5%        3.4%
 65kt / 72h       45.4%       15.4%       30.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.44

 WP952026 260307 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.00    140.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.4  39.1  41.1  43.1  32.2  27.1  26.3  31.2 VF  F VF VF  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  80.0  83.0  82.0  80.0  78.0  71.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%